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Ukraine & Russian conflict… 1,004 days later

Ukraine & Russian conflict… 1,004 days later

The Russian military crossed into Ukraine 1,004 days ago.  It is obvious by now that Ukrainians do not want to be “liberated” by Russia.  This war affects us all.

 

The conflict the world misunderstands

 

This is an article I wish I did not have to write.  And it is a continuation on the series from the war in Ukraine.  Like it or not, this affect the entire world, and it has been Ukraine alone who has been holding the line.  That is despite some of the help they are getting from the international community to defend themselves.  But of course, Ukraine is left largely to defend on its own because any more involvement would engulf the entire planet.

For anybody who has been living under a rock since February 24, 2022 – a Russian-led “special military operation” crossed into Eastern Ukraine with military force, and they have remained there ever since.  Until February 23, 2022, a lot of people inside the Ukraine, in Europe, and the rest of the world “thought” it would be preposterous that Russia would cross into Ukraine.  They were all wrong, and neither Ukraine nor the rest of the world have been the same ever since.

I’ve written several articles about this conflict, and you’ll be able to see a common denominator.  The majority of people in the rest of the world largely stopped caring shortly after the attacks started – and endured.  For over two years Ukraine played defense, while in the last few months Ukraine shifted from defense to strike into Russia.  Meanwhile, this situation has also become a political football for the less informed and was certainly a key issue for the 2024 US election.

But despite all this, the suffering of the Ukrainian people, as well as the Russians who are not in favor of this war continues to endure.  I’ve predicted his was going to be a protracted conflict, but coming to the new Trump administration, it might end by forcing Ukraine to surrender.

If Ukraine falls, and a forced surrender happens, do you know who might be next on the list?  Moldova, particularly in the Transnistria region.  I bet that many people reading this had no idea where any of those are.  And the adversary is banking on the hopes you won’t learn about it, nor that you’ll care about it.  Much like with Ukraine and the Donbas area.

 

HLC   Russia Ukraine 948 Days Later web

 

 Ukraine & Russia Conflict... 948 days later

Ukraine & Russia Conflict… 2 years later

Ukraine & Russia Conflict… over 485 days later

Ukraine & Russia Conflict… a year later

Ukraine & Russia Conflict… 334 days later

Ukraine & Russia conflict… 302 days later

 

 

At the brink of World War III

 

Shortly after Trump’s victory to re-taking the White House, incumbent US President Biden authorized Ukraine to finally use long-range strike capabilities into Russian territory – using American made HIMARS weapons systems.  These stand for High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, and they have proven highly effective against the Russian forces.

This comes after a lot of success by the Ukrainians in previous strikes into Russian territory, especially in the Kursk region.  For a long time, Ukraine was only repelling attacks, and since Russian was relentless, they shifted into striking back inside Russia.  Do you think that is justified?  Think about this… if somebody was coming into your house and beating you up, and that kept going for several months, wouldn’t you leave your house and beat your aggressor at their home – in the hopes they will stop?

The Kremlin’s response was what most people would expect – retaliatory.  The threat of nuclear war has exponentially increased from the Russian government.  These words are not only repeated by official talking heads, Putin himself among those… but also by the Russian State sponsored media.  That has also included some nuclear-capable test launches.  Fortunately, Russia tends to be very lousy when it comes to quality control, and many failed.  But they only need to get lucky once to start a chain reaction.

As Ukraine took on the offer to strike targets into Russia with precision, Putin retaliated by launching an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM).  The ICBM was armed with a conventional warhead instead of a nuclear head – which by the way they are essentially interchangeable.  The missile itself is just a vehicle.  The payload can be swapped.

Putin as also overtly threatened US military installations in Poland, and before that for a long time he has alluded to the fact that Russian strategic weapons systems can range the USA mainland.  Adding now also to the mix the employment of North Korean military forces that are fighting in the Russian front lines.  Do you see the escalation yet?

Putin has said, what can only be described as a sore loser tactic, that if Russia is threatened, he will use nuclear weapons.  That is akin to be losing a chess game and instead of conceding defeat you just violently flip the entire table where the chess game is being played, regardless of whether the other side has achieved a check mate or not.  This flipping of the proverbial table is what is known as “MAD,” or Mutual Assured Destruction.

Since the Cold War started after World War II, the West and whomever is taking the place of Russia – the Soviet Union at the time, and the Russian Federation today, they have been at odds with one another.  What changed the world was the implementation and detonation of atomic bombs.  First the USA, then the Soviet Union.  Today, nukes are also in the hands of China, France, the United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.

What most people might not know is that we’ve been very lucky so far as to not going into nuclear Armageddon – yet.  What has prevented is those in the proper pertinent positions to understand the risk of miscalculation.  World War III has almost started a few times, but most people won’t know it.  As we are phasing those well-versed individuals preventing this from happening with loyalists and “yes men and women” – this risk of miscalculation is exacerbated dramatically.

I know that is not what most people want to think about.  You rather be walking your dog, watching your TV shows, watching your ball game, going out to eat, keeping to yourself and stay home, whatever is it that you want to do… it does not matter, because a small cabal of people are deciding whether you live or die violently while you feel powerless to do anything.  But you do have power.  Voting, and holding those you voted for accountable for their actions.  But that is a team effort.

People in Ukraine were doing exactly the same, they were going about their lives until an external force violently changed all that in an instant.  Today more than 1,000 days later the nightmare continues.  And many did not wake from it, because they were brutally murdered as result of this conflict.  Military campaigns will show when the weapon is fired as a sign of pride – they seldom show you the human carnage it caused when it lands.

I know a lot of people don’t care about the suffering in Ukraine and might not even care if that suffering happen in their own land – so long it hits the “others.”  But guess what, when the war in Ukraine occurred, it did not matter which party line you favored at the time, the adversarial forces killed everybody indiscriminately.  The same could happen in the USA.

For a thought experiment, if a nuclear weapon detonates in New York City, it won’t be sparing MAGA loyalists who voted for Trump against Liberal never-Trumpers.  And if you think that is only in a “blue state” – they would still do the same deep in Omaha, or any of the Midwest where there are nuclear silos.  Votes have consequences, in Ukraine they elected Volodymyr Zelenskyy.  He was a former entertainer – a man like a Jon Stewart comedy type entertainer.

And now on his shoulders is not only the fate of the Ukrainian people, but somehow the fate of the entire world.  While most people feel emboldened to attack him.  The Ukraine is not a NATO ally, but like it or not they are preventing the entire world from becoming a radioactive cloud.  If Trump forces him to surrender, this will not end the conflict.  It will only start a larger phase.  I told you; Moldova is likely next.

 

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This is happening in America too

 

Unlike Ukraine that the “liberating forces” that crossed the border with military force came from outside their borders; in the USA the aggressors who are friendly to Putin are already inside our borders – and they are American.  And most of them are draped in American flags.  I’ve been warning about a new American Civil War for a long time.  And this might have already started.

Russia realized that the best way to destroy a country is from the inside out.  Ukraine, much like the USA was pretty divided before… among their political factions.  Some were pro-Russia, others weren’t.  Regardless, when Russia crossed into the border and started striking, it killed both groups.  Love and loyalty for Russia was no match to the rounds of artillery, bombing, or other ransacking campaigns.  Do you think that a random soldier is going to be asking you intellectual question in the heat of battle?  You would have to be delusional to even think they won’t shoot first and ask questions later – if they even care to ask.

A similar, but exacerbated division is occurring in the USA.  A lot of MAGA followers repeat verbatim the Russian regime state-sponsored talking points.  A talking point does not equal fact, it means they have a script for you to regurgitate.  Easy to remember talking points.  Dozens or even hundreds of them, so you can feel super smart for memorizing them.  Meanwhile you’re aiding the adversary without even knowing it.

Understand this:  The everyday Russian people are not allowed to speak out, period.  Either you “concur” with the state-sponsored talking points of face punitive measures.  The official word from the Kremlin says that is not the case, yet the prisons and accidents keep occurring to those who disagree.  And the way they have already entered the USA with via Operational Information Campaigns.  Find gullible Americans and exploit their biases and virtues.  Issue them talking points, and watch the show unfold.

If you think Trump will stand up to Russia, you’re very naïve.  Putin’s first power move against Trump was to have his state-sponsored media in prime time to put nude photos of Melania Trump.  The hosts were giggling, and Trump said nothing.  He cannot defend his wife, but this was a power move against ALL American women too.  If they can humiliate the US First lady, what makes you think the second, third, or any sequential number thereafter would be spared?

Trump boasted that he would resolve the Ukraine-Russia conflict on day one whenever he gets elected.  That was November 6, 2024 – when the results came out.  So that is 2 weeks, 4 days since then… or 18 days after… in other words, he did not resolve it.  He said he told Putin to stop it, Putin responded by saying that nobody tells Russia what to do.

Trump’s response to this exceedingly geopolitical puzzle is to nominate a weekend TV host from Fox News, Pete Hegseth as the secretary of Defense for the largest military power on the Planet. For you to understand how shortsighted Trump’s strategic understanding of the battle space is, understand this nominee’s military credentials.  There is a reason why a secretary of defense is a former career military member, usually a Flag Officer.  Having a highly qualified individual for this or any cabinet position is not just an appropriate consideration for the USA, but for any nation in the world.

So, Trump is unable to demonstrate that he is not subordinate to Putin.  So, what Trump does?  He appoints a person who ascended to the rank of Major in the National Guard, and who has only 12 years of combined experience in two separate stints of service.  Is there not any other better choice from MAGA from the 71 million of voters Trump had?  Not ONE Flag Officer or a Senior Officer for that matter?  One with actual strategic level experience.  Let me here explain to you very quickly how the rank systems in the USA work.

 

Enlisted force goes from E-1 to E-9.

This career path is of specialists on a particular field.  A senior person starting from E-7 and above train Junior Officers as well as training the enlisted force.

 

Officers force goes form O-1 to O-10

This career path is more general, but have a higher level of responsibility, and different milestones to get to the next level.  Making it to O-3 is kind of automatic unless you’re a total failure and fail to promote.  O-4 is still considered a Junior Officer.  Senior Officers are O-5 and O-6 – that is why even their hats get more fancy decorations, and Flag Officers start from O-7 to O-10.  Those are the guys that get stars.  O-10 being a 4-Star flag officer.  For example, a General, or an Admiral.  Trump’s choice was an O-4 a Major.  Or the Equivalent of a Lieutenant Commander in the Navy.

In order to promote from O-4 to O-5 the selection process is extremely rigorous.  Different milestones are needed in order to reach a higher echelon.  That includes understanding tours of duty in Higher Headquarters, such as Fleet Commanders, or Type Commanders, or Combined Commands, Coalition Commands, etc.  In order to qualify to a different level of command, you have to excel in your previous assignment.  That is why most secretaries of defense were former Flag Officers – you have to earn that talent and experience.

 

When you’re in a high cabinet position, you cannot simply have “on the job training” – there is a lot of information that needs to be part of your very own persona.  This ranges from the intricacies of security classifications at various levels of compartmentalization, to thorough understanding of the capabilities and limitations for allied and adversarial order of battle, from geopolitical understanding all flash point areas in the world, from the administrative rank and rate recognition from every rating and MOS in the armed forces, from the combined and joint traditions and courtesies that affect the spirt the corps, etc.

You don’t learn that in less than a month, not in 12 years either.  That is why not everybody is able to attain certain positions.  It takes a lot of preparation to move from one step to the next – on purpose.  Because only the best qualified individuals are allowed to move up, because they will hold the highest standards possible.  Also, so they can speak truth to power.

Trump’s failure to nominate a Flag Officer or at the very least a Senior Enlisted to this position is certainly a red flag.  There is only one person who benefits from this decision, Putin.  The question is, does Trump understand this?  Either a Yes or No answer is highly problematic.  And yes, if Kamala would have prevailed and she was making the same choice, my reaction would have been exactly the same.  Why?  Because I am a senior enlisted veteran, and I know what I am talking about.

 

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AUTHORITARIANISM & PROPAGANDA The Puppet Master Tools

Available worldwide on eBook and Paperback

 

From Moldova to the West

 

Trump’s anti-NATO rhetoric is highly volatile, and as his choice for Secretary of Defense, it is only beneficial to Putin, and his own axis of acolyte regimes.  My prediction is that Trump will be instrumental in forcing Ukraine to surrender, and at the very least have Russia keep the territories in the Donbas area where the invasion occurred.  Putin will likely keep Crimea as well – which they took in 2014, largely unchallenged.

The expansion will continue to Moldova, which is not a NATO country either.  Trump will likely be instrumental too in the prosecution of Volodymyr Zelenskyy and have him tried in a Russian court – despite a likely outcry from the international community.  All the death and destruction that occurred will be largely unpunished by the USA, and this will create resentment in the rest of NATO.  And the alliance might very well start distancing itself from the USA.  This is what Putin wanted all along, and Trump will likely deliver.

Coming January, the USA will likely become a Russian province (not even a Russian Republic), and at which time all these words which are not protected under the first amendment will become simply historical records.  This is what America voted for.  They voted for Putin, while draped in American flags.  They think that by issuing laughing emojis they are asserting their cynical disbelief – that happened in Ukraine too, 1,004 days ago.

The US Supreme Court, the US Congress – both chambers, the Senate, and the House… and of course the Executive branch are all MAGA controlled.  The question is, are they working for the USA, or for Russia?  US Senators were given the marching orders from Trump that blind loyalty is directed.  Saying quote “if he says jump three feet high and scratch your head, that is what we have to do” – think about that.  A co-equal branch of government in charge of setting safeguards and shed light onto blind spots from an Executive power is openly saying they will be derelict on that duty.  Who benefits with that?  Russia.

And understand that Russians themselves are stuck into that world, and the USA is wittingly following the same footsteps.  What can you do if you voted MAGA?  Hold them accountable.  If that is not what you “voted for” – make your voice heard.  You only have until January, after that you’re no longer going to be able to say anything without expecting repercussions.

But remember, an authoritarian is only as powerful as their followers.  If you were one of those followers, stop following… that negates an authoritarian their power.  Authoritarianism is not sustainable.  You did not vote for Trump; you voted for Putin.  Disagree all you want now; the indicators are all pointing towards that.  You can burry your head in the sand, it will affect you just like it affected Volodymyr Zelenskyy opposition before and after the war – regardless of political loyalty.

I still see people in America who are stubbornly acolyte to Trump’s antics.  Just realize that he is not the master mind, he is subordinate to Putin.  And Putin has showed that over and over again.  Trump is prone to react based on adulation or criticism, Putin knows this.  He just needed to wage the war in Ukraine long enough for him to get back in power.  My next article will likely be very grim – because all my predictions so far have become true.

First start by paying attention to Trump’s answers to the threats Putin has issued to the world, and you’ll understand the obvious.  Trump’s silence is deafening.  Look at every wedge issue that is contented and compare that with Russian state-sponsored talking points.  It matches verbatim.  Look at any controversial issue in the domestic discourse.  Ask yourself, who benefits from all this?  It is Russia.  The only group that could change the status quo in Russia are Russians themselves.  And the only ones who can do the same in the USA is the USA – at least for now.

 

HCL Authoritarianism Propagda J. Marcelo Baqueroalvarez red web

AUTHORITARIANISM & PROPAGANDA The Puppet Master Tools

Available worldwide on eBook and Paperback

 

Willful ignorance in geopolitics

 

This is not a time to try to look for a silver lining, because there are forces that will stop you from speaking truth to power.  Those with a large platform – mainstream media, independent media, and elected leaders… that’s your responsibility now.  That’s what you were elected to do, and for the media folks… that is what you’re supposed to do, inform.

However, all those were also victims of this information operations campaign.  They fell into the trap long ago.  So, it is up to the independent media with small clout to fill that void.  I’m doing my part… until I won’t be able to do the same.  And saying “I told you so” is not a vindication – it is an expression of frustration because like it or not, we are all in the same boat.  And this boat is sinking fast.

As I close this article, I said it before, as I repeat it today… my heart aches for Ukraine.  I thank them for all their sacrifices, because while most of us are able to be in the relative comfort of the “safe” environment we take for granted, they have lost it all.  And every little bit of comfort they have it gets destroyed by air raids, and artillery.  Many of them had their loved ones killed in the past 1,004 days.

While you sleep in your warm bed, entire families in Ukraine have been forcibly taken from their homes at gun point and executed.  While you prepare your meals at home, somebody in Ukraine is forced to scavenge to survive.  While you kiss your kid’s good night, many Ukrainian kids have been dropped into a common grave with hands-bounded behind their backs, shots in their head and knees to humiliate them before they were murdered.  Yet, those cynical uninformed people say, “Ukraine you’re about to lose your allowance.”

You don’t realize it yet, but that might happen in the USA sooner than later.  And you’ll understand then why saving Ukraine was vital not just to them, but to you too.  You don’t think it could happen to you.  Because you’re in your nice clean house in a good neighborhood.  Ukrainians also had nice clean homes in good neighborhoods that no longer exist.

This is not a feel-good article.  Any war is horrific and knowing that is has expanded for more than a thousand days should be a horrific realization.  And more horrific is the fact that many people stopped caring long ago.  I know that understanding the geopolitics ramifications is too foreign, and even at a varsity level for many people, who will even feel offended by the fact I said “varsity” – but if you’re at a varsity level you won’t feel offended because you do understand.  If you feel offended is because you are more worried about your own ego than the merits of my words.

Every day Russian people are also trapped in the same bubble.  Some are “Z.”  Many are not “Z” but pretend to be in order to mitigate punishment.  Many more have given up… and there are still millions who have no idea that the conflict is even occurring, because they are too privileged to care.  And if you don’t know that “Z” means – that is the symbol being used by Russia to say they are pro-this conflict.

The escalation of this conflict seems inevitable.  The only thing that can fix it is if our newly elected leaders stand up to Putin.  Will they?  Does not seem to be the case.  Do they think Trump is in power?  Trump is subordinate to Putin, and if he is not – and you voted for him, have him prove us all wrong on the merits.

All his cabinet picks are only convenient to Russia.  Ask yourself why?  The answer is obvious, Trump is subordinate to Putin, and his acolytes are perfectly fine with that.  Will the USA be fine?  It won’t.

Brace for shock America, what is happening in Ukraine will come to your neighborhood soon enough.  The difference is that instead of a Russian flag, it might have somebody wearing a red hat.  Unless those with the red hat love America more than their infatuation to Trump.  HLC

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