On February 22, 2022 the Russian military crossed the border into Ukraine. This war has killed innocent Ukrainians for 302 days with no end in sight.
The human toll
I remember it almost as if it was yesterday. My ship, USS COLE DDG 67 was deployed in the Middle East. During those days, the looming possibility of Russia possibly crossing into Ukraine seemed inevitable. Back then, a few weeks before the conflict started the official world from Russia was that this military operation was not going to happen. But little by little the official rhetoric kept indicating otherwise. Plenty of people really believed it could happen, not a matter of if but when. However, I also remember reading news from countries all over the world thinking that this military operation was not going to happen at all.
Well, the latter segment was wrong! On February 24, 2022, Russian military forces crossed into Ukraine. I remember being woken up in the middle of the night by one of my colleagues when this conflict started. I promptly got up and start learning more about it. I was not surprised, this movement seemed to be telegraphed for years. There were plenty of rhetoric, news headlines, the way politics around the globe had played out. When you see it in hindsight it makes perfect sense how these pieces came together – though you can disagree with the reasoning behind the actions. I personally do not agree with the taking by force of any sovereign territory.
By the time this article got typed on December 23, 2022, Ukraine and Russia have been fighting for 9-months, 4-weeks, and 1 day. That’s 302 days since this conflict started. How much pain and destruction had occurred since the beginning of this so called “Special Military Operation” as officially designated by Russia, or a “war” as officially designated by Ukraine. In fact, reportedly it was illegal to call it a “war” in Russia, and people did get arrested for called it such. Though their president called it a “war” at least a couple of times in public addressed. Semantics.
For the sake of a baseline, let’s set the conceptualization straight. In any high-profile military armed conflict there is an aggressor and a defender. Who is who, will depend on what side of the equation the adversaries are been assigned to perform their military duties. In other words, each adversary will place the blame on the opposing party. No surprise there.
In this article I am not going to address who’s at fault or who’s right on this conflict. I’m sure you have your opinion on that. Just like I am. However, stating my opinion could immediately alienate a dissenting view, therefore making this article a moot point.
I’m more interested in exploring the human factor in this equation. Why? Because in the “fog of war” there will be a lot emotion, and it does not matter what evidence or narrative I can point to make one point or the other, there is a visceral response on both sides. And the catalysts for these responses will be prompted by a myriad of sentiments. All of which are so dynamic and complex that it would be even unfair trying to generalize, or even pick a few anecdotal examples as though it would be an empirical fact for the overall representation. With that said, we can very well explore the common denominator into what is obvious to the world. That’s that we are all human, and as unique as we all are, there are many things that makes us more similar than different from one another. Keep reading to find out how this tie into the overall context.
A war is ultimately fought by people. Some people will be in commanding positions away from the “action,” others will be in the battlefield. The difference is that not every person who finds themselves in any of those positions are necessarily “wanting to be there” in the first place. Particularly to those in the battlefield. And on the opposite side of the dichotomy, some people in charge are not fit for a leadership position. Yet, they all find themselves in wherever position they got assigned.
There will be people who believe in the cause, some who are fighting for their lives (defenders), some who do not believe in the cause, and some who are stuck somewhere in the middle of any of those variables. In fact, as I mentioned people are complex and this mind-shifting will be dynamic. Some people who deeply believed in a cause might very well feel disillusioned if they figure out that they were fighting for what they come to later define as a falsehood.
War Crimes
According to many different reporting sources, there have been horrific war crimes committed by both Russian and Ukrainian forces. There is something that is known as the rules of war. Which in reality is a bit of an oxymoron – because there could be a lot of casualties and heinous extermination of human lives… but if they fall under certain purview then it is not technically considered a “crime.” I won’t go through all those rules, but essentially it states that if an adversary is capable of defending themselves and they perish during conflict then it is technically not criminal. By the way, a preempted attack could very well also be considered a criminal act of war. Yes, I am oversimplifying. You’re very welcome to read the resources pertaining to the rules of war.
In broad strokes, what could be then described as a war crime is when an abuse of power against defenseless civilian and military forces occurs. Abuse of power is a very vanilla term for an extremely wide range of actions that could happen against a person or a group of people. This non-exhaustive list includes but it is not limited to: The indiscriminate killing of civilians, the dehumanization of people, raping, pillaging, torture, destruction of private property, humiliation that robs a person from their dignity and humanity, summary executions, intimidation and coercion, etc.
The fact is that people when they are angry, they can escalate to display some of the most barbaric instincts into a very violent frenzy. But that usually happens when their adversary is no longer considered a human being. Instead, this savagery happens if this person being attacked in the other side of the equation becomes a symbol of their discontent. Discrimination, racism, subjugation becomes so much easier to misguided people when they consider that “other person” inferior in any way. Yes, generally the aggressor would consider the victim inferior in some way, and they would rob this person of their humanity.
This descending into war criminality does not happen overnight. A divisive narrative, fearmongering, rhetoric, cultural shifts among other psychological methods will paint a picture that casts a perceived adversary in the light somebody with an agenda wants to push. Read that again.
What does that mean? Somebody will use the support of like-minded people to carry on an agenda. This normally only occurs if this person on the top has a large enough platform to push their rhetoric. Some of this will resonate loud and clear to the followers, some might fall flat. But little by little, somebody will agree and eventually push this rhetoric into action. Some of the most influential dictators and strong men did not start with a strong platform. However, little by little their ideas were taking refuge in the minds of people who were ready to receive this message.
And “ready to receive” is another loaded term. Why? Because most people do not originally “simply” follow people who end up becoming an authoritarian. Generally, functional people prefer not to do undue harm onto others. Instead, however, they “believe” the words of an authoritarian – just the parts the authoritarian let the people actually hear, and censors whatever is not convenient. If a person is already pre-disposed to a bias, then some of these narratives will find a very fertile ground. The minds of those who want to believe will double down on their own heads, and from there it will go all to their hearts. Once it gets there – to the heart, even if misguided – it is very hard to get it out, because by now the rationality has been overtaken by emotions, and this is the visceral response I was speaking of before.
So, who’s vulnerable to that? All of us… it’s a human trait. In this case, it does not matter if your Russian, Ukrainian or any other nationality. We all have biases, every last one of us. Some of us might be able to control these biases, police ourselves and raise above some or most of them. But the hard part I trying to go above a bias if we have not realized we had a bias at all. That’s where influential people (for good or bad) thrive.
When it comes to authoritarians throughout history, they all galvanized support based on a bias. As I said before, they would feed that bias by shoring cherry picked information that is beneficial to them, and censoring anything that goes against that agenda. Remember, a leader is only as strong as his or her followers. And I stablished before, some of the followers might be willful volunteers, some might somehow find themselves in that situation. Put a pin on that last sentence, it will come to play later in this article.
Let’s talk about the Ukraine side of the story
In the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, we see many of these misunderstood factors in motion – however, the original motivations are from very different perspectives. Let’s start with Ukraine. Ukrainians, despite any narrative to the contrary were the ones who had a different nation crossing into their borders with military force. Even if you agree to Russia’s perception or justification it does not change the fact that it was the Russian military who crossed the border, not the other way around. And for context, Ukraine has a very deep historical connection with Russia since well before ethe time of the Czars. In fact, Kiev at some point in history was a Russian’s Capital. But eventually these became distinct countries.
We have to realize that the way lines in the map look today is not at all how they always looked. In fact, Russia and eventually the Soviet Union had very different borders than what we see today. But it was not until the Soviet Union collapsed in the 90’s that many former Soviet territories became independent. Ukraine is one of those territories. Ukraine is a gigantic country that was in fact the frontier between modern day Russia and the rest of NATO.
With this deep history of Russian influence, it is not surprising that Ukraine will have a lot of ethnic Russians living within Ukraine. Though the official narrative from Russia has been evolving (for a lack of a better term) since the time this conflict started in February 2022, the original premise was a “liberation” of Russian people in the Donbass region, which is a sizable portion of Eastern Ukraine bordering Russia. This was not the first time Russia had crossed into Ukraine, something similar happened in the Crimea peninsula in the southern part of Ukraine in 2014. Though Russia’s official narrative is that there were no military people from Russia involved, even though there were literally thousands of military personnel wearing no insignia that occupied that territory. Despite any controversy this operation might have caused in the world stage, there were a lot of ethnic Russians living in Crimea, therefore Russia was not met with the same overwhelming force as it has been the case in the Donbas area.
Are there a whole bunch of ethnic Russians in the Donbas area? Absolutely, a lot of them. Are many of those very much onboard with being part of Russia and not Ukraine? Again, yes… as a matter of fact that was likely one of the key factors that Russia perceived as they prepared to take over this area. Much like it happened in Crimea. But this time it was very different… Though a very sizable part of the Donbas population was onboard with turning this part of Ukraine to” Russia,” there was another very sizable part of residents who were totally against that. And of course, between the nays were also for the rest of Ukraine. In either case, simply crossing a border does not automatically change the sovereignty of a nation.
For us to understand this, we also have to understand the cultural differences between people in Ukraine and Russia – or any other culture for that matter. National identity will become an important factor on people’s lives. Even if they don’t agree with everything that is going on in their own land, most people do not want to get an external force to impose their laws. People in Ukraine despite any narrative to the contrary had been experiencing a living hell since the beginning of the conflict. Millions of refugees fleeing, entire cities and critical infrastructure destroyed, mass graves, raping, pillaging, execution of civilians with their hands bound, knees shot and back of the head shots. Is that an official Russian official directive? Or the abuse of power is directed by somebody in the front lines – who is dehumanizing people?
I’ve mentioned before that the world is not a place where roses and lullabies are the only realities. There is a very dark side to humanity. Despite the official directives from the Kremlin -whatever those are, the soldiers who are in the front lines will act in one way or the other. Some might be intrinsically good people; some might be terrible people who believe they have card-blanche to do whatever they want. That latter is not legal. And I am sure that the Kremlin understands that, and I want to believe that there is some level of internal accountability to those responsible for committing war crimes. I know that in the U.S. we take that very seriously and even if a military member’s accountability does not make the headlines, we are very strict about ensuring we abide by the rules, and these rules also include treating people with dignity. Even if we don’t personally like the adversary or are angry at them in the middle of a conflict.
Likewise, I am hoping that there is also a level of accountability for Ukrainian forces if they indeed perpetrated any war crimes… even if it is under the umbrella of retaliation. The fact is that once somebody becomes a prisoner of war, then these captured people are under the care of the force that holds them captive. These people’s health and humanity are the captor’s responsibility. And to be clear, robing a person from their humanity is criminal.
Of course, saying this from the comfort of my office while I am typing this seems a lot easier than navigating what is going on in the front lines. But I would argue that this actually affords me the opportunity to be objective. You see, when you’re directly involved in the stressful situation, you will get tunnel vision. My article does not condemn nor condone any of the actions from either side. My opinion is my opinion, and I will keep that to myself. My intent is really to capture what is in my mind today and hopefully give somebody an opportunity to read my words. Perhaps something I say will help them in any way. Even if I personally don’t understand how… right now.
Ukrainians motivation is to not lose their country, and further stop the suffering of their people. It is no secret that most of the international community sides with Ukraine, and despite any opposing narrative, it was not Ukraine who crossed the border into Russian territory on February 24, 2022. But there is plenty of evidence, and it has not been disputed that it was Russia who crossed the border into Ukraine with military power. This proves capability, opportunity and intent.
What would you expect that Ukrainians would do seeing this military might rolling in? Well, we know what happened – they fought back. Unlike Crimea, where the Russian military was not received with significant resistance. Especially because those who crossed did not wear any insignia. Seeing it in hindsight it seems obvious that Russia might have erroneously factored this would be a very short conflict, but nothing could be further from the truth… obviously, we’re almost 10 months since the first Russian tank entered the territory.
We have to also realize that Russian’s military is much larger than Ukraine’s and perhaps that what was factored in the strategic decision-making to enter the country. Military speaking, Russia was superior at the beginning of the conflict. However, they forgot a very important key element. The human factor. Every war in the world was won was because the victors believed in their cause. Russia themselves were victors on previous wars against aggressors crossing their territories. That includes Napoleon who miscalculated the invasion during the bitter winter, and then the Nazis when they repeated a similar mistake. Russia and subsequently the Soviet Union was not necessarily the superior army at the time, but they were victors because they believed in the cause. The cause, people defending their homeland.
Now, let’s think for a moment and realize that a lot of those people in Ukraine were former Soviet – essentially anybody born before the 90’s. There are many cultural differences, and Ukrainians are fighting against somebody crossing their territory, much like the Soviets fought the Nazis crossing their back in World War II. Put a pin also on this adversary for a moment, as we’ll discuss this narrative when it comes to Russia. Everything comes full circle.
Let’s talk about Russia
I’ve said it before, people from any nationality around the world come in a wide range from awesome to terrible. Most Russian people I’ve personally met in my 40+ years are super nice people. Culturally speaking Russia is a very diverse country. And it makes sense, as it is the largest country in the world. Expanding from Europe and taking a huge chunk of Asia, there are several cultures. Russia the way it is now depicted in a map is not how it was throughout her history. They had some good times, and they had some terrible times. I would argue that right not is not one of those good times for Russia.
But this is the truth, NOBODY wants to erase Russia from the map. Not NATO, not anybody. First off because that would take a large part of our planet so it essentially would destroy the rest of humanity along with it. Second, and most importantly because every day Russian people are actually super nice, and the world is not against everyday Russians. Now, can Russians and any other nationality be subject to propaganda and other half-truths and narratives. Absolutely yes, and so it is the rest of the world. I established before that any group of people, even if they are nice themselves could be convinced that there are false enemies out there… or worse overhype the danger to their homeland. Unfortunately, no geopolitical story is a straightforward binary black & white issue. A country such as Russia will of course have a lot of shades of gray that will be part of their long history.
And if you study Russian history you’ll be inspired by their tenacity and valor when faced with adversity. However, you will also find that their tenacity and valor has been often highjacked by authoritarianism who raised a select group to the higher echelons and subjugated millions to the bottom. That was true during the time of the Czars, and subsequently also true during Soviet times. There was no transparency, and if you didn’t obey without objection then somebody would carry on the order of eliminating you and everything you ever loved. But it was then the Russians themselves who worked for a better life for themselves.
You can even argue that at first Soviet mentality was technically an improvement from the monarchy under the Czars, but it was not properly managed. Millions died of starvation and people were put in place without being properly qualified to carry those duties. Pair that with blind obedience, and you have a recipe for disaster. It is just not sustainable, and anything we’ve learned has been obvious that the Soviet Union collapsed from within. There was no war with the Soviet Union that led it to dissolve. It was a consequence of the flaws in the system.
However, a lot of the Soviet Union mentality lives in the lives of older generations throughout the former Soviet territories. Why you think is that? Because it was part of their everyday life, and somehow it would have any vestigial part of their cultural identity. The Soviets Communist party was in power for a very long time, and in that time a lot of their doctrines were inculcated to the Soviet citizens. Even if they did not want it in their lives.
Let me give you an example. The country of Lithuania which is one of the first states to gain independence from the Soviet Union in the 90’s (along with Latvia and Estonia) kept large swaths of their cultural identity in a clandestine way.
I have friends who were born in Lithuania before the 90’s and they told me stories that the Soviet Union was not cool at all with Lithuanians speaking their own language – Lithuanian. In fact, every Lithuanian had to be a fluent Russian speaker, and the Lithuanian language (which a very complex language by the way) only survived due to the tenacity of ethnic Lithuanians holding on to their cultural traits. And yes, there were severe consequences to ethnic Lithuanians if they were found of doing this preservation of their language during Soviet times.
But this story on its own gives you an anecdotal insight onto the dramatic influence of the Soviet Union in this country. I also remember seeing some of the Soviet era apartments, and yes – they are very characteristic, and I would dare saying not designed for comfort, but rather basic utility. And a lot of that became the normal way on how people lived. However, for people who lived there, this was considered adequate, and so it was for a few who had not ventured outside their hometown outside the old Soviet blocks, this reality was what all they knew.
And why I bring this? Well, it is easier to galvanize support against a bias for people – particularly western people if you paint them as excessive and decadent. This was true during Soviet times, when it came to the way they perceived the west. In the U.S. all portions are bigger, houses are larger, cars are huge, they are so wasteful and decadent. That was the trope.
Sure you, can argue that some of the things we have in the U.S. are a bit over the top, but what they buy is convenience. Capitalism is far from perfect, but it allows people to grow up to their highest potential – even if it not a straightforward process. In Soviet times, it really depended on where you fit in the hierarchy. And even if you were in a high-level hierarchy, it was still subpar as far as a standard of living if compared to other nations. In fact, much “less privileged” than the western standards actually enjoyed.
For example, a high-ranking party person in Soviet times might have a small three-bedroom apartment, and a Volga automobile which is a pretty ugly and not particularly well-constructed car. And of course, you would have to wait a long time of hard work and loyalty to gain that driving privilege. Conversely, a run of the mill middle class American at the same time would have a pretty large three-bedroom home with two and a half baths, a garden, a pretty fence and one or two super cool automobiles of their choice. And if they did not like their boss, they could just quit presenting both middle fingers up without any fear of the government authorities coming to arrest or shoot them in the head for disloyalty. But that did not mean decadence, they were just afforded a different opportunity in the West.
Unfortunately, those vertiginous narratives do exist to this day. Although a lot of people in Russia and the former Soviet Union are able to see the world and experience the cultures for what they really are, there are still millions who likely never leaved their small towns.
This by the way this is also true even in the U.S. where there are people who have not left their hometown most of their lives. However, the world comes to them via the internet, or even big stores such as Walmart. That’s a different rant, but the point is that this gives people an opportunity to see something outside their limited purview. Is it perfect? No. The truth is that living in a bubble is a possibility in any country around the world. My intent is to spark your curiosity so you can see the world for what it is. A very dynamic place, and some of the tales we hear growing up are not quite true.
Hey, I can speak from experience on this. I was born in Quito, Republic of Ecuador in the 80’s and early 90’s. And let me tell you, a lot of the bullshit adults were spewing as empirical facts were in fact very divorced from reality. However, I didn’t know any better, because – of course – an adult was telling me this, so they should know it right? Well, no… some of these guys were so far off the mark that it is hilariously tragic in hindsight.
The scary thing is that a lot of those confused people were teachers and educators themselves. And their narratives – which by the way affect the culture of the country. Yet these were very biased and misinformed themselves. Now as an adult and a person who does what I do for a living, I can very much identify these shortfalls. But this was not limited to Ecuador growing up, this was also true when I started learning from other countries and talking to people from different cultures. Some of those “empirical truths” were really a very skewed reality. That was also true for the U.S. some of the things we though were true were just the mind-fabrication from somebody else. Usually, to try to sell us something. That’s one of the things I love about being an analyst, is that we get to see stuff from very different angles and try to decipher the truth from the bullshit. And there is plenty of bullshit around. It has always been, we’re just getting better at spotting it.
And I say better, and not good at it because of all these vertiginous biases I spoke about. Obedience and respect for elders, which are virtues can become double edge swords. Blind obedience can lead to manipulation, and some elders are in fact f—g morons. And these two undisputed facts. However, this can also be very selective depending on our deference for anybody who has earned our trust and respect. And in some instances, our fear. By the way, fear and respect are not the same thing.
And this is what I am observing that is happening in Russia, and around the world really. But relevant to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, one of the key differences between Soviet times and today is that even if people might have not been afforded the entire context before sending them to the front lines, nowadays there is likely going to be an exposure to information that is not 100% aligned with the official state-sponsored narrative.
How can we tell? Well, look at the obvious facts. Though a lot of Russian people are in fact very patriotic, they are not agreeing with the government’s narrative. Huge swaths of people in fact have voiced their dissent in demonstrations across the country, and many left Russia to make their voice heard through different avenues outside Russian’s borders. Of note, there was a mass exodus both via air and land from Russia after the government mandated a mobilization of about 300,000 additional conscripts.
The official narrative is that the mobilization was only for males from a certain age range, capable of fighting on this campaign. The narrative around the world is that the mobilization also included all kinds of people that would otherwise would not be meeting the requisites for military service. I cannot independently confirm that, because obviously I am not in Russia, and I don’t have access to that fidelity of information, nor am I looking for it.
Besides, mainstream media around the world are showing images and reports that are pushing that narrative. I do believe however, based on the copious amounts of reports that there is a big percentage of soldiers and Russian citizens who are not onboard with the premise of this military conflict. In other words, they disagree with the government’s official narrative. And for quite some time we see more and more reports, documentaries, and all kinds of media demonstrating Russian soldiers deserting their posts. What could it cause them to do so?
As I mentioned before, people will fight to the bitter end when they believe in the cause. Also, I mentioned that fear and respect are not the same thing. Sure, they might work hand in hand, but one is intrinsically more powerful that the other. That of course is respect, but respect is earned, and it has to be earned every day. Respect is not a right; it is a privilege. And if there is anything that demonstrates to a subordinate that their leader is not fully in the up and up, the respect will erode fast. Does that mean that they won’t demonstrate obedience to their leader? Not always, if there is fear, they will be obedient, but not because they believe in the cause, but because they don’t want to deal with the repercussions.
Now, let’s understand repercussions, because that’s important in the human factor. If the repercussions are less severe than the reward for a significant risk, then the level of compliance and obedience will be affected. What do I mean by that? Let’s say that somebody is in charge of a group. This person in charge is not very skilled, not an actual leader – just somebody put in charge, let’s say this is a dude. And the group does not like this person, but they fear him. They will be obedient as long as this person has some power over them.
But for example, if the power of this person is diminished – or the risks this person is asking from their group beyond the reasonable request of compliance, then the spark for disciplinary dissent will start becoming an option to the subordinates. For example, let’s say that the group does not believe in the cause, and the person in a leadership position seems less than bright, but he is on a power trip, and the orders this person is giving could become a senseless suicide mission. Whatever the narrative he pushes, there is no rhyme or reason for such sacrifice. In other words, the group can clearly see that they would be obediently rushing into a self-massacre. What do you think it’s going to happen? One of two things, they either will run the other way, or they will uprise against this person.
And in essence this is what is being reported as observed in the front lines. There is no shortage of news that are not painting the tactical and operational Russian military leadership in a good light. How much of this is communicated to their President? No clue, but I have a feeling that the news reaching the top levels are not quite representative of the realities on the ground. Which then begs the question, is the higher echelons surrounded by “Yes” men and women? Hence the critical information does not make it all the way to the top. Or are the decisions coming from the top not effective? And could this be either because the directive is not effective, or there is not proper discipline in executing the actual orders and strategy? Either way it is not good news for the country as a whole. And likely a lot of people who run away from this conflict figured this out as a possibility.
Military service by tradition will demand obedience through the ranks. However, this patriotism does not equal senseless contempt for their own lives. In other words, if people figure out, they are fighting a losing battle, it is very likely they will prefer any other consequence that does not include them getting killed in vain. Sure, many of those who have deserted in the front lines will be ostracized and prosecuted, but they will be alive. According to reports this is happening after a lot of their fellow military forces were killed in what it they likely viewed as very preventable deaths. Pair that with the red flags being reported on the handling of casualties, and their motivation will be a very hard sell to achieve.
If you pair all that to the myriad of videos being sent from the front lines where new conscripts stated, they had to buy even the most basic military gear at their own expense – then any allure of readiness is going to become a very hard sell in the front lines – well before they get there. Especially if you realize that Russian people are already more austere than many western nations based on their economy, this additional expensive burden then becomes quite an enlighten statement indeed. Another narrative being reported is that the gear, ammunition, weapons, and other basic living requirements – such as food and water are not readily available. This of course would raise the question on the logistics of this large military force. If they struggle with this neighboring seemingly less powerful country, how will it be leveraged against a much larger force. And realize that many of these conscripts were likely not thrilled to be taken away from home and come to fight in Ukraine in the first place. Again, the human factor.
Reports say that a large portion of the basic training is comprised warnings against cowardice and desertion. To me, it does not take a PHD to realize that there are red flags about doctrinal procedure and trust up and down the ranks. Further, this could hinder the actual Russian patriotism but remember that patriotism does not equal blind obedience. With the Russian economy suffering back home, the looming threat of yet another mobilization, and escalation of the conflict – how sustainable this is for Russia? It is not, and it is already in a bad situation that will take generations to fix.
The only people who can fix this situation with Russia is Russians themselves, and that goes from every side of their society reaching an agreement. And spoiler alert, continued hostilities against Ukraine and threatening hostilities around the rest of the world is not a viable solution.
The Russian quagmire
Agree or disagree with the reason for Russia to cross into Ukraine in the first place, and the protracted stay – there are some inescapable facts. For better or for worse Russia’s doctrine put them in a lose-lose situation. Let’s explore.
If Russia “wins”
They still don’t win. All the damage done to Ukraine, and as consequence of this military operation inflicted back to Russia will take generations to fix. Why? Let’s start with the human toll. The alleged crimes against humanity, the collateral damage killing, the destruction of infrastructure, the toxicity of ordinance on agricultural lands, the displacement of millions of people, the destruction of housing, basic services, roads, bridges, livelihoods, casualties compensations, the actual cost of the war efforts, all the equipment that got destroyed, all the ammunition and ordinance (especially unexploded) that was peppered through the entire country, the raising economic sanctions, lawsuits, investigations, litigation, etc. I can go on and on… all that will need to be fixed by Russians at some point before the actual “liberation” of the Donbas Region overshadows the gigantic cost… and that is only on the “Ukrainian” land. The economy in Russia and the regeneration of forces and lives lost, and possible a distrust that will continue from all those dissenting on the official narrative. “Wining” this conflict will not mean anything if their livelihoods will be compromised for years or generations to come. Especially because the truth about the situation in the ground will come to light one way or the other. It is not a matter of if but when. Same thing happened after the Soviet Union dissolved. The secrets that were obvious to a lot of the people became clear as day. So, even if Russia “wins” – the cost for wining is a de-facto loss.
If Russia “losses”
All this stuff I mentioned above, they will still have to deal with everything I mentioned above and then some. Except that it won’t be under their own Russian timeline. The timeline and conditions will be imposed onto them. And then it makes sense why the official narrative has been changing from Liberating Russians from Ukrainians, to fighting Nazis, to beware of NATO or any other imaginary foe. The truth is that NATO (to include the U.S.) does not want to fight Russia, or anybody for that matter. They just don’t want the conflict to spill over outside the region. Which is reasonable, because most people in Europe and the U.S. prefer to live in peace.
Seriously, we have a good thing going here in the West. People much rather enjoy their lattes, watch their TV shows, travel the words, eat at restaurants, enjoy their hobbies, walk their dogs in cute outfits, do home improvement, drive around town with their loved ones. Literally, anything is more appealing than fighting anybody on the other side of the world. In fact, I bet you there are plenty of people who cannot even point in the map where the actual fight is taking place. Which is sad, by the way. But that is a testament of how much every day westerners are not planning to fight anybody.
In fact, the best military power is the one that does not need to fight. Still be ready to defend its interests. Any lessons learned on that can happen to any country but remember that the truth comes in the end… at some point.
So, this being a lose-lose situation would leave only one logical course of action. Blame somebody else… and we have seen this attempt for months since before the conflict started. And of course, during this entire time. There is a narrative that the U.S. and NATO are Russophobe. Not true, a lot of everyday Americans and Europeans actually love Russian people, they are not in agreement with the doctrines under Russia – they ones Russia is living under right now. And the rest probably are not even tracking anything else outside their own happy bubbles – not Russia, not anyone. And by the way, it is normal to agree or disagree on policy. But disagreeing with a policy does not mean that they don’t like Russian themselves.
But we also have to realize that the conflict is not making it easy for anybody with a brain to let their guard down either. What do I mean by that. We’ll for example, if a soldier defects Russia and leaves, there might be a suspicion they are not actual defectors, just by virtue that there is a time of war. In other words, there are national security concerns that will be addressed. That does not mean that a Russian defector would be mistreated if they ask for asylum, but nothing is cut and dry in the world. And this situation of course is exacerbated because of the actual premises of the conflict, and the copious amounts of war crimes occurring since the beginning of the conflict. Regardless of if there is blame on both sides.
I’ve also heard of mistrust towards Russians who left the country after the order of mobilization was issued. And I have to say that I would say it is unfair to treat somebody bad because they disagree with their government and are trying to do what they can to distance themselves in a legal way. Of course, that disagreement and betrayal are two different things, but how do you judge one from the other is also a complex situation. In other words, in the case of Russia if people were running out of fear for their lives it seems like a very desperate situation for that decision.
In other words, it is very hard to justify it being betrayal if a person is willing to leave everything they owned and left behind in a hurry if they are fearing for their lives. And the fear for their lives might not be because they are afraid of the government per say, but afraid of the tactical decisions of somebody who is in the front lines.
In other words, I’m willing to bet that most people would prefer not to die in vain. Especially if they perceive they would be under the command of somebody in the front lines who might or might not know what they are doing. And judging from what is been reported far and wide, it is likely that they realized something to validate that fear. In other words, it would be very naïve to think that in Russia there are no alternative ways people are consuming media form around the world through their internet services, or other means.
In the end, the one gift we all have is life. Our lives are worth living – and an alive person can make a difference. The death of a martyr might serve as inspiration, but the full scope of their story will be controlled by whomever gets to own their narrative. This has been going on since the beginning of time. Some people become romanticized; some will have their reputation tarnished in the pages of history. However, eventually the truth comes to life. Tough it might take thousands of years. What is the truth we are forging for ourselves today? We create our own legacy each day by our actions, that’s how we can control our own narrative. That’s why I write my story, no matter how much somebody tries to erase it, there is a copy of it floating in a server somewhere, and my message will reach the right ears when the time is right. Thank you for reading this far. HLC