On October 1, 2024, Iran conducted an unsuccessful massive ballistic missile strike against Israel. Israel will retaliate, this is what we officially know so far.
This is an escalation into conflict
Before I start, let me give you some context. I also want to emphasize that I am not condoning Iran’s attack on Israel, and I do understand that the tensions have been deteriorating rapidly in the region. There is a lot of contexts behind today’s events, and this adds to the exponentially precarious situation at the geopolitical level. I’ve been speaking about this for a long time. Hence, I am not surprised at all about today’s events. But for that reason, today more than ever before, a cool head over our shoulders must prevail.
Iran attacked Israel in retaliation for Israeli forces killing Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon. It is important to understand that Hezbollah, although it is a Political Party today, much like the Taliban in Afghanistan, it did start like a violent extremist group. You also need to understand that not all Muslims worship in the same manner. Iran and their many proxies in the region are Shia Muslims, and they have the Ayatollah in Iran as their highest-ranking religious living figure head.
With this I am not saying that Suni or Shia are either one better than the other. Like in any religion there are extremist in either side. For example, ISIS happens to be a violent extremist group that is Suni, and the Houthis are a violent extremist group who happens to be Shia. And if you think other regions and religions don’t have their own extreme interpretations, then you are not paying much attention to the escalation of worldwide tensions. That is why I say that this conflict requires a cool and pragmatic head.
The fact is that Israel along with two US destroyers, the USS BUCKLEY, and the USS COLE (the latter was my last ship until earlier this year) were on scene and helped shooting the Iranian ballistic missiles down. Israel and allied forces have a very robust early warning system, and we (the USA) have been collaborating with Israel for a very long time. This means that US President Biden was aware of the entire operation and was able to direct the US forces in the area to defeat the Iranian strike.
This is despite the fact that there is a pretty obvious tension between President Biden and Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu. Bottomline, the US and Israel are able to collaborate towards a common objective despite political differences. I do have to say that the remarks from former President Trump against Biden were incendiary, and he better than anybody, being a former President should be aware that Biden’s place was in the situation room – as it should be, during the unfolding of the events. And the result is that the Iranian attack was thwarted.
This is what we know
It is confirmed that Iran was striking in retaliation because Iran killed Hezbollah leaders, which are proxies to Iran. There were no Israeli or American civilian casualties reported. The Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) is minimal, but there are craters on the road, and other damage, but overall, this is very limited damage. This is despite the fact that Iran was shooting some of their best missiles over. Iran was aiming to destroy four targets. They missed them all.
I was watching the live feed on TV of these strikes in the Tel Aviv area. The barrage of missiles is not a first instance against Israel, but this is the first time it is of this scope, and also it is a state-against-state strike, instead of the usual proxy-against a state attack. Of course this is escalatory in the conflict, and anybody who had been paying attention, then it was very obvious that an attack was about to happen eventually. The US and Israeli forces were ready.
So, let’s understand that for a long time Iran has been known on the world stage as a sponsor of terrorist groups. The tactic was for Iran to stay back, give weapons to these violent extremist groups, the extremis would then conduct the attacks, and Iran would be able to maintain some plausible deniability. Not this time, this time was a state sponsored attack directed by their supreme leader, the Ayatollah.
Of course, that this means that Lebanon is also a flash point area, because this is where Israel conducted a strike on Hezbollah. And yes, we (the USA) have a lot of people in that country. At this point an evacuation is not occurring, there are plans in motion to have more seats on planes for Americans to be able to exit the country If needed. The airports are open, and depending on whether the situation deteriorates, it might require an evacuation effort.
Meanwhile, Israel has vowed to retaliate at a time and place of their choosing. It might happen as early as tonight, although last time they retaliated it took a few days. The official statement from the US is that Israel has the right to defend itself against Iran or its proxies. And Iran is considered not only a threat against Israel, but also a threat against Americans in the region. And the US plans to hold them accountable. Vice President Harris also gave short remarks much to what I am telling you here.
This means that if Iran would target US persons or assets then US will intervene to protect these US interest in the region. As mentioned before the USS BUCKLEY and the USS COLE are on station, and there are also a few other large deck ships like the USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN (that was also my ship earlier in my naval career), and the USS WASP (which was almost my ship). Therefore, we do have a lot of capabilities in the region, but the plan is to deescalate to prevent this conflict from spilling out of the area.
It is expected that Iran was going to send a second wave of ballistic missiles. Some speculate that this barrage was as many as 400. So far, the official sources have it as half that amount. But we’ll get the actual figure in the near term, I’m sure. This situation is being assessed as I type this. But my intent is to also capture it as a time-capsule, because the misinformation is already running rampant all-over social media – particularly on Twitter. Yes, it did start with the surgical precision strikes from Israel against Hezbollah (not to confuse with Hamas – there are plenty of Iranian proxies in that area). Also do not confuse this with Palestine. Even where the streams cross, people tend to muddy those waters. I’ll write more about that sometime in the future.
The US have been monitoring the precursor indicators for this failed strike, Iran was very vocal about planning on conducting it. However, this is a lot larger than previous attacks. Needless to say, the US condemns this strike, and thus far other Middle Eastern Countries have not officially commented. But I’m sure that by the time you read this an official statement from each country in that region would have been released.
So, what’s next?
Well, the US is not striking Iran unless they target our forces or interests. Supporting Israel to defend itself is not the same as striking another country. The official spokesman for the Pentagon said he would not be speculating, nor discussing anything regarding tactics, and that is a fair statement. The US is pushing for a diplomatic resolution to this conflict.
The Iron Dome along with the US forces ballistic missile defense effectiveness of our US Destroyers in the area were proven once again highly effective – and they should be commended. Of course, that there is still a lot that has not been made public yet. Again, under the current assessment, so far minimal damage on the ground, and President Biden characterized Iran’s strike as ineffective. And I do agree, because they were shot down. But that does not mean that it was not a massive attack, and if the capabilities did not exist to stop them, this would have been a bloodbath, and we would be hearing a much different story right now.
Now, the ball is for all intents and purposes in Israel’s court. I hope they choose temperance, but I do have a feeling that the counterattack is going to be very significant. And that is a catalyst for this to continue escalating further. I’ve been purposefully avoiding talking about the conflict in the Middle East because it is extremely complex. And despite everything I am saying in this article, there is a lot more than is not part of this article for a very good reason. But we have to realize that although some factors do cross streams, each situation has to be addressed independently and pragmatically, even if they will combine down the road.
At some point, now that the genie is out of the bottle, there is a lot that needs to be addressed – although it might feel like it was addressed on the back end. But the reason is because it is very likely that people who have been itching for this to go up in flames are giddy about how spicy the situation is getting in that area. And now these warrants shedding light onto these issues before they become more volatile. Let me tell you why.
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The part nobody is talking about
This might or might not surprise you, or you might or might not think is relevant, or that it is tangential. But as everything that I write, there is always a lot more to the story than what meets the eye. In this case is a holy war between “good and evil” – I’m serious. I am not religious myself at all, but I am very well-versed in theology.
What keeps me awake is that there is a huge number of people who are wishing for Armageddon to start soon. Yes, this is the biblical part of the end of the world and supposed second coming of Jesus. Armageddon is supposed to start at the Golan Heights in northern Israel, pretty much around the area that is sandwiched with Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan. So, yes – I can write an entire article about this part alone because that is a whole other can of worms.
Bottomline, I am worried that some people might feel they are the “chosen ones” to start a conflict that would not only raise the temperature on the geopolitical level but could very well start World War III under the guise of fighting good and evil, as a welcoming mat to a supposed return of Jesus. I am serious as a heart-attack. I realize that this might sound hyperbolic TODAY, but mark my words, and you’ll see how it does come around. IN fact, do that with any of my articles that I’ve written before. What I’ve predicted has occurred.
In the meantime, there is plenty that is still away from the public eye… a lot we don’t know. And that makes sense, military tactics are not conducted on the open press, they are done in classified environments to prevent the adversary from gaining the upper hand. I’ll likely write a follow up once Israel responds to the attack, or if there are any other significant updates. As I said, my intent is to capture the historical moments before the propagandist start skewing the truth. And yes, that is indeed happening already. HLC