The GOP candidate won by double digits in the TN-07 special election. The Democratic candidate gained a wide margin, but campaign messaging remains lousy.
Dems Don’t Control the Narrative
At 98.9% of precincts reporting, the projected winner of Tennessee’s 7th District special election is MAGA-aligned Matt Van Epps with 53.9%. He is taking the place of GOP Congressman Mark Green, who resigned earlier this year to pursue private sector opportunities. The Democrat was Aftyn Behn with 45%, and there were several independent candidates — Jon Thorp, Teresa Christie, Bobby Dodge, and Robert Sutherby — with less than 1% combined.
Note: These figures might change slightly once the full reporting is tallied. The figures are as of 9:00 AM EST on December 3, 2025.
So what happened after the "blue tsunami" on November 4th? The same old mistake: Democrats are bad at messaging. And looking at the statistics makes it all the more obvious. I’ll cite this source because it makes it easier to read for any campaign strategists out there:
Tennessee House Special Election 2025 Live Results: Matt Van Epps Wins, NBC News Projects
So let’s break this down "Barney style" for the campaign managers out there who are moving to the primaries and midterm elections in 2026.
If you forget anything I say, don’t ever forget the HUMAN FACTOR. Democrats in office and campaigns tend to ignore this as they live in their own "consultant bubbles."
The U.S. electorate is no longer just divided into Democrats and Republicans, with some independents here and there. The parties themselves are further subdivided. The division is between those struggling badly and those who are suffering lesser inconveniences. Let’s do some forensic math.
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Campaign Managers, Pay Attention.
As of the time I write this article, approximately 179,899 votes have been counted. There are approximately 530,000 registered voters in TN-07. That means a whopping 66% stayed home. Your next question should be: Why? Because messaging is poor — that’s why. More on that soon.
Tennessee does not disclose a voter's affiliation, only the total numbers. Sure, they tend to vote Red a lot. And Davidson County (around Nashville), the largest Democratic stronghold in that district, was gerrymandered effectively in February 2022 into three districts. Had it remained untouched, this would have been a decisive Blue victory.
The other closest county was Montgomery, followed by Williamson — though trailing a lot further behind. A big key factor is affluence. Montgomery has a median income of ~$72,365, mostly among younger folks. And Williamson, the most affluent county in Tennessee, is about $131,202, nearly double the Tennessee state median, mainly full of suburban professionals who commute to Nashville.
All other counties that remain "ruby red" are Benton, Cheatham, Decatur, Dickson, Hickman, Houston, Humphreys, Perry, Robertson, Stewart, and Wayne. These counties are predominantly rural, culturally conservative, and economically modest, with only a few (Cheatham, Dickson, Robertson) showing affluence due to proximity to Nashville.
I won’t go on a deep dive into all these demographics, because it would turn from an article into a several-page technical study. My goal today is to help folks identify the lessons learned.
Aftyn Behn had a predominant slogan, “Shake up Washington,” and ran on what she called a "progressive agenda." But she failed to define what any of that meant. In other words, she was really selling the same thing her MAGA opponent claimed to sell. However, we also have to remember the most insidious variable any campaign manager should understand and combat: prejudice.
Whether they like it or not, or whether the voters themselves understand it or not, they have biases. Based on their environments, these biases won’t be only condoned, but potentially celebrated and rewarded. The MAGA base knows very well how to turn those "all-American virtues" into biases that translate into votes, regardless of whether those benefit the voters or not.
Remember, a lot of folks vote on emotion, not facts. And yes, that is how folks often end up voting against their own best interests.
For deep-Red parts of Tennessee that are more isolated from the bigger cities, where diversity is shunned, and gender roles are — in their doctrines — divinely mandated, a lady in power was going to be at an intrinsic disadvantage against a combat veteran male endorsed by a MAGA President. Even if they don’t like him, they would vote for him just to “own the libs.” I know it is cringeworthy to even think about it, but folks like that exist and do go out and vote.
Democrats do not understand that attacking Trump by talking poorly about MAGA — although counterintuitive if you’re opposing him — actually backfires. Why? Because this deep into the game, Trump and MAGA became identity tokens, hence a trigger for cognitive dissonance, and it affects voters’ loyalty. If you speak negatively about MAGA, the entire emotional response overrides any facts. The message should always be inclusive — attack the issue, not MAGA — even if that sounds counterintuitive.
I told you before, Democrats tend to misunderstand the human factor. Not everybody perceives politics like those who follow it closely. Some have no idea about anything in politics and don’t want to learn — and often end up not voting. Why? Because they feel their input makes no difference since both sides of the aisle remain inept at bringing accountability, and prices go up while our wallets keep thinning.
People want to hear solutions. Most Democrats don’t really give solutions on their campaigns, other than saying the MAGA are destroying America. But the incumbent caucus remains idle “because they don’t have the votes.” That fatalistic and inept lack of power from the incumbents kills a subsequent caucus campaign before it starts, or at best it becomes a liability that inept campaign managers tend to overlook, or risk pissing off those who write the checks.
In November, the Blue candidates won because Red candidates crossed party lines and gave them a chance. The numbers are in: most of the Blue base stayed home — as usual. If these newly elected folks underperform when February rolls around, those Red voters will retaliate by voting Red, just to spite the Blue. Why? Because they gave them a chance, and they squandered it.
It is like having a brand of choice for a beverage or food item and trying the competition “to give it a chance.” If it destroys your gut, you can use your imagination to make it more graphic than my illustrative example.
But that is what we are seeing in America during the current political climate. Red voters voting Blue see it as a gamble. And that was even during the Government Shutdown. Then immediately after Red voters voted Blue, we saw a handful of Democratic Senators squander that leverage and get nothing in return after more than 40 days of suffering. And yes, that probably also played a factor in this special TN election.
So what’s the solution?
Simple: Choose America over party, regardless of political affiliation. A new group is sprouting all across America known as the “Courage Candidates” — some are running as Democrats, some as Independents. They are all running on upholding their oath of office to protect the U.S. Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic. That includes their own caucus. There might be some conservative folks also joining in.
They have a unified slogan: “WE are the UNITED States of America.” That is the first step to gain cohesion. From there, they are expanding their plans to address the "human factor" in every district they represent and become the coalition America deserves.
They understand something the incumbent Democrats and their campaigns don’t get: Americans are more similar than different, and if we are divided, the adversarial forces win. They are listening to folks regardless of political affiliation; they are also fighting for those who don’t even want to vote for them. Why? Because elected leaders must look for the best interest of all their constituents.
The Democrats spent millions of dollars in Tennessee, and for a minute were able to scare the bejesus out of Speaker Mike Johnson because this election could have flipped the House of Representatives, and he would have lost the gavel well before the midterms.
Johnson was worried about articles of impeachment against Trump starting to pour in with the current Congress. I would not be holding my breath knowing the incumbents, but a third impeachment for Trump is not a matter of if but when.
Yet for any candidate, a simple desire to do the right thing is not enough. It takes comprehensive (and often seemingly super-boring in the planning process) strategy. And yes, each district will be unique based on several variables. There is always a common denominator, but the environment will dictate the next moves a person is willing to take.
For example, in places where there is affluence, the “immediate need” to go out and vote might not seem as crucial. Even if they are struggling but sorting their life out, they have a “chance to disconnect,” but folks who are choosing between paying their rent or eating don’t have that luxury.
Ironically, the work schedule might even make the less affluent person less likely to vote because they are stuck at a low-paying job during the hours the polls are open.
But we also cannot ignore the fact that most elections are won by a relatively small number of voters — who, for one reason or the other, decided to go out and vote. In TN-07, just a little over 81,000 voters supported the Democrat in the entire district, and only shy of 97,000 supported the Republican. Remember, there are more than half a million registered voters in that district alone.
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In TN-07, the Hispanic/Latino population is approximately 7.4% and the Asian population is 2.0% (2024 population estimates put the total population at around 816,216). This translates to about 60,400 people of Hispanic/Latino origin and 16,300 people of Asian origin. How did they vote? For example, if we count on the low end combined and added those votes to the Democrat's total, the tally would have been approximately 162,000 votes. How were these communities included in the voting factor? And no, Asians and Hispanics are not monoliths; in fact, many tend to be very conservative.
From my research, I found there was essentially no outreach to these communities in Tennessee. But those voters are also American. Combined, they have approximately 76,700 potential votes that were not properly targeted. Some quick math here: that means those could have represented 80% or 86% of the votes Aftyn Behn actually got.
The question remains: how many of her votes were from the Asian or Hispanic communities? Tennessee does not disclose those figures. But Hispanic and Asian populations in TN-07 are concentrated mainly in Montgomery County (Clarksville area) and Williamson County (Nashville suburbs). Smaller but growing communities exist in Robertson and Dickson Counties. Rural counties in the district have very low percentages.
Although Tennessee is responding against bigotry with new laws and community watchdog efforts, it is noted the issue is recognized and being confronted. Yes, racism is present and visible in Tennessee. Hate groups see the state as fertile ground for recruitment, especially in suburban and rural areas.
Any candidate has to understand these factors, because they will derail any campaign, not only on numbers but through intimidation and other forms of voter suppression.
I plan on speaking more about the political strategy “Courage Candidates” can use. But meanwhile, remember this: it is not about winning a vote; it is about earning a vote. There is a huge difference between those — the incumbent Democratic caucus has not figured that out yet.
And also, winning by cheating is a de facto loss. If the truth has to be redacted in order to “win” — then the math won’t add up. Yet voters vote based on emotions because the truth has been redacted to them, making the correct answer counterintuitive.
This article was a peek behind the curtain on how technical these races can be, but remember the entire balance hinges on the Human Factor. If that is not understood, even a victory is unsustainable. I’ll be writing more about it — but most technical topics will be for specific audiences. HLC
About the Author: J. Marcelo "BeeZee" Baqueroalvarez
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J. Marcelo "BeeZee" Baqueroalvarez is the Founder of Half Life Crisis™, a unique father-daughter collaboration dedicated to the relentless pursuit of intellectual honesty, critical thinking, geopolitical strategy, and meaningful art. Marcelo is the recognized author of the essential reads, Authoritarianism & Propaganda and Woke & Proud, driving challenging conversations worldwide. When not publishing, Marcelo utilizes his strategic insight in technology and business as the founder of BeeZee Vision, LLC™, which includes BZVweb™ Automated Web Services and Info in Context™ strategic consulting.
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